Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $384,666$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(4.57 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{443,903.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 124.2)}}\) (asimptote \(443,903.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $22,154$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,536.8}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 172.3)}}\) (asimptote \(37,536.8\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,381$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $256,719$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{337,017.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 159.4)}}\) (asimptote \(337,017.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,422$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(145 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,421.0}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 134.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,421.0\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $54,038$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $44,293$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,752.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 120.5)}}\) (asimptote \(43,752.0\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,060$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(52.1 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,285.2}{1 + 10^{-0.324 (t - 106.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,285.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,634$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $86,380$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(4.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,647.4}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 124.7)}}\) (asimptote \(88,647.4\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $705$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(23.2 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{849.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 122.8)}}\) (asimptote \(849.8\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,847$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $88,963$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(5.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,167.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 124.4)}}\) (asimptote \(88,167.6\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $540$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(90.2 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{509.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 69.7)}}\) (asimptote \(509.4\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,520$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $128,936$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{629,111.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 246.7)}}\) (asimptote \(629,111.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,007$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(82.5 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $26,448$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $319,932$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.96 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{323,828.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 103.5)}}\) (asimptote \(323,828.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,049$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(262 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,205.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 106.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,205.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,041$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $54,771$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,263.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 129.7)}}\) (asimptote \(55,263.7\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $196$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(9.98 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{198.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 115.4)}}\) (asimptote \(198.5\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,930$ on 2020-09-05