Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Oman
  • Kuwait
  • Israel
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Bahrain
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • China
  • Singapore
  • Qatar
  • Uzbekistan

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $384,666$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(4.57 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{443,903.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 124.2)}}\) (asimptote \(443,903.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $22,154$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(2.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,536.8}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 172.3)}}\) (asimptote \(37,536.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,381$ on 2020-09-05

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $256,719$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(2.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{337,017.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 159.4)}}\) (asimptote \(337,017.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,422$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(145 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,421.0}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 134.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,421.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $54,038$ on 2020-09-05

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,293$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,752.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 120.5)}}\) (asimptote \(43,752.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,060$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(52.1 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,285.2}{1 + 10^{-0.324 (t - 106.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,285.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,634$ on 2020-09-05

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $86,380$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(4.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,647.4}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 124.7)}}\) (asimptote \(88,647.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $705$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(23.2 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{849.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 122.8)}}\) (asimptote \(849.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,847$ on 2020-09-05

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $88,963$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(5.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,167.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 124.4)}}\) (asimptote \(88,167.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $540$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(90.2 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{509.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 69.7)}}\) (asimptote \(509.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,520$ on 2020-09-05

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $128,936$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(2.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{629,111.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 246.7)}}\) (asimptote \(629,111.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,007$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(82.5 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.0\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26,448$ on 2020-09-05

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $319,932$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(2.96 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{323,828.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 103.5)}}\) (asimptote \(323,828.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,049$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(262 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,205.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 106.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,205.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,041$ on 2020-09-05

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $54,771$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(2.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,263.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 129.7)}}\) (asimptote \(55,263.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $196$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(9.98 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{198.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 115.4)}}\) (asimptote \(198.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,930$ on 2020-09-05

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Singapore recovered 97%
Qatar recovered 92%
Uzbekistan recovered 77%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 72%
Saudi Arabia recovered 68%
Afghanistan recovered 66%
Yemen recovered 63%
Vietnam recovered 57%
Japan recovered 48%
Bangladesh recovered 13%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $90,025$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(4.25 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84,754.0}{1 + 10^{-0.085 (t - 15.4)}}\) (asimptote \(84,754.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,728$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(-2.46 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,683.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,683.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $460$ on 2020-09-05

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,982$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(-1.42 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53,934.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 114.8)}}\) (asimptote \(53,934.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(6.1 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(26.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $688$ on 2020-09-05

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $119,864$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.57 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,361.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 93.7)}}\) (asimptote \(115,361.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $202$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(21.4 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{199.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 89.5)}}\) (asimptote \(199.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,882$ on 2020-09-05

Uzbekistan⮸

Population $33,469,203$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,293$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(903 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,691.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 142.3)}}\) (asimptote \(59,691.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $343$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(4.09 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{447.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 126.5)}}\) (asimptote \(447.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,176$ on 2020-09-05